A reply to Charlie

Yesterday was, as I indicated in my previous blog entry a momentous day.  The aftermath of the election the previous day remains raw.  And I think emtions are running high, justifibly so as the gravity of the moment bespeaks a high sense of feelings.

To be candid, Facebook is my go-to social media platform and where I spend way too much time arguing, sharing, and so forth.  Yesterday it was a place of mixed messages and emotions as I watched and read what was there.  Among the things posted, later in the day, was Heather Cox Richardson's daily synopsis.  Heather is a History Professor at Boston College (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heather_Cox_Richardson).  She styles herself as follows on her substack feed:  "I'm a history professor interested in the contrast between image and reality in American politics. I believe in American democracy, despite its frequent failures."  Her post yesterday was no less informative than any previous, and as is my habit I often repost her synopsis (here is last night's post:  https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/november-6-2024).

My reply prompted a comment by Charlie Davidson, a former student and strongly held libertarian.  I think it is definately worthy of consideration as he is not alone in his convictions and thoughts:

"If you were surprised by this loss, you may not be as informed as you think you are. And this also speaks to an inability to understand WORKING CLASS people. Kamala was never working class and its also hilarious how much Hispanics and women shifted to Trump. So keep calling us sexist or racist or whatever, that just proves you don't understand Americans."

In reply I offered the following appending the image that follows):

"Charles Davidson I’m not surprised by the loss for Harris, it’s been a toss up for almost the entire race.  The magnitude of the break, that is different, although, it’s not far from a couple models that 538 did adding in the polling error typical from the last two rounds (which I was thinking were better likelihoods than what the spin was going around).

As for demographics, this gets at the reality (so far as we know it, percentage next to the demographic label is the percentage of the overall electoral that falls in that category).  I don’t have one that breaks it down along class lines.  Your point about working class and how they vote is, again, not surprising to me.  I’ve long said there’s a difference between working class and middle class, and that is too often been lumped together.  Most of the difference there is attitude and culture, but also economics.  This image shows that there’s a number of false narratives about Hispanics going around now, as with women generally, although that demographic (white women) was clearly misunderstood by the prognosticators.

What I don’t understand about Americans, rather clearly, is the depth that the majority are willing to accept the risk to our representative democratic experiment; the republic.  I have sworn an oath to defend the constitution, and the republic that it defines, having served in uniform for over two decades.  Inherently that makes me a minority, as less than 2% of Americans can or have been willing to do that.  I am, admittedly, skewed in my thinking in that regard, as I’ve taken it seriously and know what is really in the constitution and what the republic stands for and what it does not (a great example was how I, one time, revealed to you how, what you thought ought to be forbidden under the constitution, was actually an explicit power granted to the federal government under the constitution).  The rather poor civics education in our country is something I’ve spoken/written about, but to me it seems much worse than I’ve thought.  And I think it’s not just knowledge, it’s the attitudes that have emerged about the republic that have been foisted and believed, not only thanks to hyper partisanship, but downright lies and misinformation thats been bought in as well (increasingly by hostile foreign powers).  It’s really stunning and problematic if you hold to a political center based on the defense of the constitution and how it’s enshrined.  It’s also problematic when you consider the true impacts of the losses that come with having the republic falter, which most people take for granted won’t happen or blissfully ignore that it’d happen to them (again based on my experiences, especially having been to other places in the world and having been a longtime student of history).  I clearly see the risks as too great to jettison the republic, most Americans do not.  I’ve got to get my head around that.  Americans aren’t as values based as they purport to be, at least about the democratic governance experiment that came out of our revolution.  Clearly there are other motivations and drivers that supersede the republic’s defense which I thought was held more deeply in regard than it is.  I’ve got to get my head around that more and I’ll submit it is bothersome even as I am aware it’s not entirely unique to our political history."

I don't have more to add to this post, other than to say this remains tied to my post yesterday and where I am eager, for the sake of the republic, to defend it as I have sworn to do.

A republic, if you can keep it

I start the writing of this post in the early hours of 6 November 2024, a date that shall, I’m quite certain, be studied for many decades to come.  While the vote totals are not all in from the election balloting the previous day, it looks as if Donald Trump will return to the Presidency for a non-consecutive second term.  This may yet be overturned, but seeing where things stand with him leading in the returns of all the remaining states, it seems he and his supporters have put together not only an electoral college win, but also, for the first time ever, a popular majority win.  A truly stunning turn of events.

 

In 1787, as the constitutional convention was closing, James McHenry, in his published journal, records a conversation between Mrs. Elizabeth Powell and Benjamin Franklin (styled as Doctor Franklin in the foregoing):  “A lady asked Dr. Franklin ‘Well Doctor what have we got a republic or a monarchy’ – ‘A republic ‘ replied the Doctor ‘if you can keep it.’” (https://blogs.loc.gov/manuscripts/2022/01/a-republic-if-you-can-keep-it-elizabeth-willing-powel-benjamin-franklin-and-the-james-mchenry-journal/).  To be succinct, we are at a moment where that latter part will be in question.  The return of Trump to the presidency will stretch and challenge whether the republic can and will hold.  This is not a question of if or if not this is true, we have the evidence of his previous four year term to show it is true.  The question is to what degree and how badly will it be.

 

And that is the state of affairs that the American voters appear to have been willing to risk, if not outright endorse.  Back in the summer of 2016, I wrote about the phenomenon of Trump (http://backusec.blogspot.com/2016/07/the-trump-phenom-abridged.html), which has remained evergreen in its assessment of the nature of the supporters of Trump.  The exception being that the “feeling” aspect that drives the movement is increasingly, and almost entirely, divorced from facts or realties.  It is instead built on a set of perceptions and mythology that is repeated incessantly and through unfiltered mechanisms based on the pomposity of Trump.  Despite his being held liable for sexual assault and rape (to the tune of tens of millions of dollars)  and being convicted of a felony, his spin of it being a sham court, unjust persecution, and election interference (all of which are fundamentally untrue) are believed by a significant number of people.  Many of which are parroting or even going further in embellishing the fantasy that’s been spun out, that he not only gets away with it, people feel aggrieved with him.  The depth of how well this has permeated was brought to full relief to me when a friend commented a few months ago in response to one of my posts.  In her mind, the republic was already dead and there was nothing left to salvage from it (despite the fact that she lives in a world, which is clearly taken for granted, where the entire economy is backed by the full faith and trust in the republic she calls dead).  And the apparent result is self evident, the American voter is either wired into this dystopian version of the world or at least tolerant of it enough that they voted to put him back in office (despite well knowing the likely result).

 

As the first term of Trump’s presidency ensued, I prognosticated that it was going to be a chaos driven mess that was going to pull us in the wrong direction, as we had to contend with serious and potentially devastating challenges as a country both domestically and in foreign policy.  After I retired from the US Army in early 2018 it was clear that the direction was not good, but the guardrails were holding to keep the republic from failing in spite of the chaos that was beginning to be the signature of the administration, with policies issued by tweet and showmanship being the modus operandi over and against any sense of statesmanship.  There were significant accomplishments made, from the MAGA point of view:  a massive tax cut and reordering of the tax code, the appointment of a majority of solidly conservative (arguably reactionary) US supreme court justices along with scores of federal judges, a “phase 1 trade deal with China”, a bromance between Trump and Kim Jung Ill, etc.  Nevertheless, despite efforts to make our foreign affairs into a transactional system, our alliances were not fully abandoned, NATO held, and we did not fully concede to an isolationist position.  At home, repeals to the American Care Act (aka the health care act passed during the Obama presidency) failed, efforts to dismantle the civil service were thwarted, and within the Whitehouse itself, there were many who were reigning in excesses like trying to shoot protestors in the knees or using the military in domestic law enforcement.

 

This was, however, a serious period of back peddling and failing to address the big issues of the day, all in favor of creating political theater for entertainment sake at an unprecedented scale.  There was no infrastructure bill or serious effort.  There wasn’t any real effort to contend with entitlements in a serious way.  There was zero effort to curb spending on nice to do things and even a doubling down on wasteful efforts like the boondoggle that was and is “the border wall.”  The Afghanistan conflict continued, and instead of negotiating to leave on terms that would bolster what we had invested in that place, the Afghan government had to deal with an agreement between the US and the Taliban that put them in a horrible position; leaving the conclusion our involvement to be decided in the next administration without a real way to fix the problems.  There was no tangible effort to curb the effects of a changed global economy, and instead it was imposition of tariffs, a retake on NAFTA renamed USMCA that didn’t change the paradigm, and an era of easy cash that had hyperactive growth in the economy making it primed for a massive burst.  And, boy did that house of cards tumble in the face of a once in a century event, a global pandemic.

 

To avoid going on forever on the history of the first Trump presidency, it ended in devastating fashion.  Millions of Americans lost their lives to the COVID-19 outbreak, never minding the numbers globally.  The economy which was flying way to high for its own good, tanked massively putting many out of work resulting in Trump being the first president since the Great Depression who left office having lost more jobs than had been created.  The problems at the southern border never got solved (and arguably were left to fester), instead of quelling unrest and uniting the country, protests had only increased and gotten increasingly violent, and we had done nothing functionally to build a bulwark to deal with a rising China, stop Iran from getting the bomb, keep autocrats from getting their way, or strengthen our stance with allies so as to have a joint vision for security and prosperity at home and abroad.  People in America voted clearly that he had failed, and it was time to end the madness.  However, then, came January 6^th, 2021, when he incited an armed insurrectionist mob to storm the Capitol of the United States, carrying his banner, to stop the certification of the election that unseated him.  Unwilling to ever concede or acknowledge his election loss, this was all fueled by a massive lie that perpetuates to this day.  He was impeached for the second time for this traitorous effort (the first was for his acts pertaining to Ukraine and the 2016 election), but as the machinations of the Senate allowed, he was not removed mainly on a technicality (making him eligible to run again).

 

Because of that, despite the facts and the realities of the failures of the first term of office, again he is most likely to be making residence at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, Washington, DC in January 2025.  Yes, the republic had not failed, but it was haggard and beaten.  Again, despite the post presidency revelations (e.g. mishandling and concealing his keeping of classified documents, efforts to get the Georgia election results overturned, and the details of his part in the January 6^th attempted insurrection, among other things), the American people have elected for the first time a traitorous felon to the Whitehouse.  I have heard it many times that we need to trust the “wisdom” of the American people as the express their will at the ballot box.  I’ll be blunt, I absolutely do not, because, increasingly, it has nothing to do with wisdom.  Rather it has much more to do with the feelings and myths that we tell ourselves over and against realities we too often do not want to see.  As I wrote on social media, the election of Joe Biden in 2020 to the presidency was merely the first step in fixing the underlying problem we have in America (an important one, but still only the first step).  As is in evidence now, it was not enough to remove the head from the snake that is Trumpism.  No, we needed to address, head-on, the grievances of the electorate with a straight talking, clear and truthful effort.  Biden did some of that, in that we finally got an infrastructure bill, we took action on high tech industry efforts, we curbed the results of the post-pandemic supply chain and Ukraine war driven inflation, but it was not enough.  Biden needed to anoint his successors to keep the work going well before the spring of this year.  He needed to find a way to confront the lies and fabrications being spewed by the Trump machine.  He needed to recognize he couldn’t be the front man for any longer than the first two years and that he needed to bring home traditional republicans to a coalition that could weather the upsurge of the MAGA-ites that was inevitable to occur.  Yes, there are problems in our republic that need fixing, but Joe didn’t get at those core issues, at least enough and with the plan to get through the long slog it needs to take to get to the other side.

So now, we are looking at the question asked akin to that of Elizabeth Powell.  America will we become something other than a republic?  Massive deportations, destruction of our institutions, and much more is promised by Trump.  Those that served within his last administration, who provided some sense of guardrails, have eschewed him and what he stands for.  Loyalty to him and his fantasy world is the only mark used to judge who he lets into his circle.  So who will be the voices of reason?  It is absolutely true that Trump poses a potentially unfettered risk to the republic, he demonstrated that before and has now promised to exact revenge on any that dared to have stood in his way.  This is what was voted for, this is what we were promised.  Are we ready for the republic to end?  Can we keep it?  I have deep fears that we will not.  I have sworn to protect the constitution of the United States, and I can do no other.  Today is a day where historians will look back and ask why we chose this road.  More so they will see it as an inflection point for the unfolding story of what American became rather than what it was.

 

The election, ballots and outrage - 2020 edition

 Earlier this week I saw a post headline saying “Ballots found thrown outside and they all were for Trump” (the latter part in all caps, deemphasized by me here). So, I wanted to get to the real facts here as the link to the supposed official statement in the article, from a less than reputable outlet, didn’t work.  But I went ahead and went to the US Attorney Middle Penn District site, and found the real release, which provides better details and debunks the “all were for Trump” moniker:  https://www.justice.gov/usao-mdpa/pr/letter-luzerne-county-bureau-elections.

I have seen, and I am certain I will see and hear and so forth, numerous articles and reports of issues with mail, or ballot processing, or what not over the coming weeks and months as it relates to the election that is underway (another this morning from Wisconsin).  And with the president of the USA saying he “has to see” about whether there’ll be a peaceful transition of power after the election, as he believes there are “issues with the ballots,” there is certain to be outrage, anxiousness, and fear mongering to ensue.  So I want to post here something to set things straight, in context and in respect to the realities.  Succinctly, save your outrage folks about fraud and irregularities, because you really need to get a grip and we need to get our head around what is and is not happening.

Here’s my point, first, no one claimed anyone was lily white innocent of voter tampering or of making a mistake or of committing fraud.  No one is be-knighted a saint.  Let me state what is a clairvoyant fact:  humans, by definition, are not perfect.  This is why election boards have at least two parties as observers to keep each other honest.  Fraud and mistakes and procedural errors happen, there’s no question of that reality.  Whether any of this, however, is a significant problem, is what matters.

So second, the fact that this case was caught (or as you’ll read in many present and future cases, it was caught) as in nearly every case, and addressed promptly (within the week, here, often within the day), demonstrates that there is not a significant problem when it comes to our election, because, you just can’t get away with it over 99% of the time.  Is it bad that 6 ballots (in this particular case in Penn.) are not going to be counted?  Yes, our goal is that every vote counts.  Is it so bad that the election (or any election) will turn on it?  That is highly, highly, doubtful.  And if these do become the 6 critical votes, then there are remedies to resolve the issue that are proven, fair, and effective.  Is this a sign of widespread systematic fraud?  Most likely not.  More importantly, is it widespread systematic fraud that will be effective or have a significant effect on the outcome of the election?  Most certainly not.  Because it is almost always caught and it almost always is resolved to address the core issues of ensuring votes count and the votes cast are legitimate.

Further, the only way fraud could potentially work is if:

a) there was enough fraudulent ballots to have a significant effect on the race, 

b) the candidate actually won the race, and 

c) it wasn’t caught in any way (whether legally or through investigative journalism or an audit or through the many other means that it is likely to be).  

The level of effort required would be pretty unparalleled at this point, but is it possible?  Yes, it is.  But it would have to be coordinated, I don’t see how it couldn’t be, and I’d say it’d probably be harder than just running a campaign in the first place.  The moment there would be a whiff of any fraud at play, however, the game would be up and it would be roundly resolved, not in the favor of the cabal who attempted it.  It’s just not worth it and it’s just not likely, especially at the national (too many wrinkles) or local level (too expensive and too known).  Where there’s been more marked cases has been for state offices, and NY has been a poster child for this in the past (even up through the 1980s), but so has the southeastern US and other places.  It’s a dying art, and that is why it’s probably getting so much attention (aside from 45’s false hyperbole and cult following), in that its rare enough to make you think it’s not possible or worth trying, yet cases persist, even as they are almost always caught.

So, please, you and others who are outraged, nervous, or plain unhinged, keep posting about cases where folks, left, right and center, try voter fraud, have errors, make mistakes, and so forth, where they are caught and the election is proven to be well secured.  There will be many, this isn’t really new.  All it does is show that the problem isn’t with the ballots or the system for absentee/mail in voting, because it corrects itself amazingly well, especially with the heightened awareness you and yours are putting on it (hence why it seems that there is “so much more of it”, yet it’s just a symptom of the fact that we can get information (good or bad) faster and with more volume than ever before).  What is proven here, and in the numerous posts and articles and reports to come, is people take voting seriously and holding people to account; that isn’t a problem, that is a very good thing.  There’s not a “problem with the ballots”.  Quite the contrary.  The focus is on them and it will be watched ever more carefully, making sure we have a free and fair election, to the best of our human capacities, imperfect as they are.  To that end, hold your outrage for how people, who are entrusted with offices of public trust, behave when they receive the results.  Let us pray they act in accordance with our highest principles not our lowest, carnal responses, and we make no excuse or quarter for the latter.